IL-10 House Election: Democratic Win Probability
Markets price a Democratic victory in Illinois’s 10th congressional district at 95.5%. The contract settles according to the party of the candidate certified as the winner of the November 2026 midterm election.
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-10 House seat?
Updated · Volume $32.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the IL-10 House seat? | 95.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-10 House seat? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the IL-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the IL-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the IL-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the IL-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the IL-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the IL-10 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic win is the strongly favored outcome, with all other scenarios priced as remote long shots.
Context
The probability of a Democratic win currently stands at 95.5%. Over the last 24 hours, it has shifted by 0.0 pts. The market resolves based on the party of the candidate who wins Illinois's 10th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if no party is listed, by the party they have most recently caucused with. Settlement follows a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission's official results serving as a tiebreaker in case of ambiguity. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 (Nov 4, 2026). Until then, the price may shift in response to polling, candidate announcements, or broader political currents. The market resolves once a consensus of post-election reporting confirms the winner.
FAQ
What is this market predicting?
It is not a prediction but a market-implied probability that the Democratic Party candidate will win Illinois's 10th congressional district in the 2026 US midterms.
How is the winner's party determined?
By the party listed on the ballot. If no party is listed, the candidate is assigned based on the party they have most recently caucused with, according to credible reporting or caucus records.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the election outcome is clear, based on a consensus of credible post-election reporting. If the result is ambiguous, it refers to official data from the Federal Election Commission.
What if a third-party or independent candidate wins?
The market only distinguishes between Democratic and Republican wins. A non-major-party candidate would be counted as a Democrat or Republican based on their expressed caucus intent or ballot affiliation as described.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice