IL-11 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Democratic win in Illinois’s 11th district at 95.5%, leaving the party as near-certain to retain the seat in the 2026 midterms.
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-11 House seat?
Updated · Volume $40.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the IL-11 House seat? | 95.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-11 House seat? | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the IL-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the IL-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the IL-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the IL-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the IL-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the IL-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic win is the overwhelmingly dominant outcome, with the remaining scenarios all considered distant possibilities.
Context
The market currently prices a Democratic win at 95.5%. In the past day, it shifted by 0.0 pts
The market settles based on the party of the candidate who wins Illinois’s 11th congressional district in the 2026 midterm election. A candidate’s party follows their ballot affiliation; if none is listed, the party they most recently said they would caucus with is used. Resolution comes from a consensus of credible reporting—if the result is ambiguous, the official Federal Election Commission tally breaks the tie. The election itself, on Nov 3, 2026, is the event that will decide the outcome. No other formal triggers or deadlines are named in the market’s rules. Once a winner is conclusively called, the market resolves; any lingering uncertainty is settled by the FEC’s official figures.
FAQ
How is the winning candidate’s party determined?
It is determined by the party affiliation listed on the ballot. If a candidate has no ballot-listed party, the market looks to the party they most recently expressed an intent to caucus with.
Who calls the election for this market?
Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting. If the result is unclear, the market relies on the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, once the winner of Illinois’s 11th district is conclusively called by the resolution sources.
What if the election outcome is disputed?
If there is ambiguity in the reported winner, the market uses the Federal Election Commission’s official results as the definitive source.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice