IL-15 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Republican hold in Illinois's 15th congressional district at 96.0%, leaving it the near-certain as the 2026 midterms draw closer.
Will the Republican Party win the IL-15 House seat?
Updated · Volume $44.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-15 House seat? | 96.0% | +0.1 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the IL-15 House seat? | 4.1% | +0.1 |
| Will D win the IL-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the IL-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the IL-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the IL-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the IL-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the IL-15 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is the heavily favored outcome, with the remaining scenarios all combining for a negligible share of the probability.
Context
The market's assessment has settled at 96.0%. The past day saw a +0.1 pts shift. Trading has been light, with volume totalling $44.2K. The contract settles according to the party that captures the IL-15 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for Nov 4, 2026. A candidate's party is taken from their ballot listing or, if absent, the caucus intent they most recently expressed. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting; should doubts persist, the Federal Election Commission's official tally serves as the final arbiter. Any movement in the odds will likely track the flow of election-year news: candidate announcements, polling data, and campaign developments. The fixed resolution date of Nov 4, 2026 gives the market a clear horizon, but the path there is responsive to the rhythms of the political calendar.
FAQ
How is the winning party determined?
The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 seat. Party affiliation is based on the ballot listing; if no party is listed, it's determined by the candidate's most recently stated intent to caucus with a particular party at the time the election is called.
What sources are used to resolve the market?
A consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome. If reporting is ambiguous, the official results published by the Federal Election Commission are used.
When does the market settle?
It settles after the 2026 midterm elections, which take place on Nov 4, 2026. Resolution occurs once the winner is clearly determined based on the sources described.
What if a candidate is not a Democrat or Republican?
If a candidate is not ballot-listed as Democrat or Republican, they are assigned to the party with which they've most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time all House elections are called.
Does the market account for potential recounts or legal challenges?
Yes. The market resolves based on the final consensus of credible reporting, which would reflect any official recount or legal outcome. If ambiguity remains, the FEC's official results are the last resort.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice