IN-08 House Election: Odds for the 2026 Midterms
Markets price the Republican Party's chance of holding Indiana's 8th congressional district at 95.8%, with the outcome near-certain as of 12 min ago.
Will the Republican Party win the IN-08 House seat?
Updated · Volume $42.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the IN-08 House seat? | 95.8% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the IN-08 House seat? | 4.2% | +1.2 |
| Will C win the IN-08 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the IN-08 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the IN-08 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the IN-08 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the IN-08 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the IN-08 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican win scenario overwhelmingly dominates the pricing; all other outcomes are long shots.
Context
The contract is priced at 95.8%. Its 24-hour change is 0.0 pts. Resolution is based on the party of the winning candidate in the 2026 midterm election for Indiana's 8th district, to be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if no affiliation appears, the party they intend to caucus with at the time results are called will be used. The market settles according to a consensus of credible reporting, defaulting to official Federal Election Commission results if there is ambiguity. The election date—Nov 4, 2026—serves as the resolution trigger. Until then, the probability may fluctuate with incoming information such as new polling, candidate developments, or broader political shifts as the market converges toward certainty on election day.
FAQ
How is the winning candidate's party determined?
It is based on the party listed on the ballot. If no party is listed, the candidate's intended caucus at the time results are called is used.
When will this market resolve?
After the 2026 midterm election for Indiana's 8th district, once a consensus of credible reporting establishes the winner.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based on the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Can the outcome be anything other than Republican or Democrat?
Theoretically, a third-party or independent candidate could win, but the probability is extremely low.
What sources are used to determine the final outcome?
A consensus of credible reporting is the primary source. If needed, it falls back to the official FEC results.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice