Intel Q2 Adjusted Gross Margin: How the Market Resolved
Intel's second-quarter results were released, and the prediction market on the company's adjusted gross margin resolved to the bracket that had traded at 97.5% (near-certain).
Updated · Volume $33.2K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 40%-42%? | 97.5% | — |
| Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) <38%? | 0.0% | — |
| Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 38%-40%? | 0.0% | — |
| Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 44%+? | 0.0% | — |
| Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 42%-44%? | 0.0% | — |
The prevailing outcome was the bracket that had been priced at 97.5%; the remaining scenarios did not resolve in their favor.
Context
The prevailing bracket was the consistent favorite throughout the trading period. Its probability moved within, and. No other outcome came close to threatening this position. According to the market's rules, resolution followed Intel's official adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) as reported in its Q2 earnings materials. Had the metric not been disclosed, the market would have resolved to the lowest bracket. If the reported value fell exactly between two brackets, the higher bracket would have prevailed. Any range-based reporting used the midpoint. Final settlement is based on the most numerically precise version of the metric, with subsequent revisions disregarded.
FAQ
Which bracket resolved?
The market resolved to the bracket corresponding to Intel's reported adjusted gross margin for Q2.
What if Intel hadn't reported adjusted gross margin?
If the official earnings materials had not included the metric, the market would have resolved to the lowest available bracket, as per the resolution rules.
What if the reported value fell exactly between two brackets?
The market's rules specified that in such a case, resolution would be to the higher bracket.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice