Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 61.0% to 58.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Iowa Senate Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets give Republicans a 61.0% chance of winning the 2026 Iowa Senate race, a figure that leaves the contest the favored outcome. The market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.
61.0%+0.5 pts 24h
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $223.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 61.0% | +0.5 |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 39.5% | -1.0 |
| Will a candidate not listed above win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market is tightly balanced between a Republican win and a Democratic win, with all other candidates priced as long shots.
Context
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 61.0% to 59.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The contract has traded within a tight range from 55.5% to 61.0%, reflecting the race's competitive nature. Over the last day, the probability has moved +0.5 pts, and over the past week it. The market resolves according to the winner of the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A candidate is considered to represent a party if they are the party's nominee. Independents are not counted under the Democrat or Republican options. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; if they disagree, it settles based on the official certification. The market will settle no later than the official certification following the election, with the election itself scheduled for Nov 3, 2026. Any events that shift the consensus among the three designated news sources—Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—could move the price, such as new polling or candidate announcements.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves based on the winner of the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election. A candidate must be called the winner by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If the three sources do not agree, the market settles on the official certification.
What happens if there is a run-off?
The market includes any run-offs, so if no candidate secures a majority in the general election and a run-off is held, the market will resolve according to the run-off winner.
Which news organizations decide the outcome?
The resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market is settled once all three call the race for the same candidate.
When does the market settle if the news sources disagree?
If the three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification of the election results.
Are independent candidates included in the Democratic or Republican options?
No. Candidates who run as independents are not encompassed by the Democrat or Republican options, regardless of any party affiliation they may have.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice