Israel Election: Likud # of seats?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election at 42.0%.
42.0%-2.0 pts 24h
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Updated · Volume $565.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 42.0% | -2.0 |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 26.2% | +9.1 |
| Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 23.5% | -1.0 |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 8.5% | -2.0 |
| Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 1.1% | -0.5 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 5 tracked outcomes and $565.4K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, is priced at 42.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice