Aug 12, 2026
Probability fell from 62.0% to 56.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election at 49.5%.
49.5%+2.0 pts 24h
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Updated · Volume $242.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 49.5% | +2.0 |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 46.5% | -2.0 |
| Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 4.0% | +0.4 |
| Will Otzma Yehudit win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will The Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Shas win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party S win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party AA win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party X win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party AC win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party AB win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Z win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party R win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party U win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party W win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party V win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party T win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party AF win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party AE win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Y win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Q win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party P win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party AD win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 62.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 57.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 66.5% to 59.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 63.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 55.5% to 62.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 55.5% to 44.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 63.0% to 56.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 63.5% to 50.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 39 tracked outcomes and $242.7K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, is priced at 49.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice