ChanceIndex

Israeli Legislative Election Winner: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election at 68.5%.

68.5%+2.0 pts 24h

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Updated · Volume $930.0K

33%46%60%73%Sep 17Sep 25Oct 2Oct 9Oct 17
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?68.5%+2.0
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?31.5%-2.0
Will Together win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.5%+0.3
Will Otzma Yehudit win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.1%0.0
Will The Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.1%0.0
Will Shas win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.1%0.0
Will Party AE win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party V win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party AD win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party U win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party W win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party AA win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party T win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party Z win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party X win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party AC win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party S win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party Q win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party AF win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party P win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Other win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party AB win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party Y win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party R win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0
Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.

Context

Oct 15, 2026

Probability rose from 58.5% to 61.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.

Oct 14, 2026

Probability rose from 58.5% to 63.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.

Oct 3, 2026

Probability fell from 62.0% to 54.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.

Oct 2, 2026

Probability rose from 42.5% to 52.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.

Oct 1, 2026

Probability fell from 59.5% to 48.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Oct 1, 2026

Probability rose from 41.5% to 53.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 28, 2026

Probability fell from 60.0% to 59.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 27, 2026

Probability rose from 58.5% to 61.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 26, 2026

Probability fell from 62.0% to 58.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 25, 2026

Probability fell from 62.0% to 55.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 39 tracked outcomes and $930.0K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, is priced at 68.5%.

Related events

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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