JD Vance Out as VP: Market Odds & Probability
Markets consider it a long shot that JD Vance leaves the vice presidency by December 31, pricing the chance at 4.5%. The market resolves Yes if he ceases to hold the office for any period, even if a departure is announced before the deadline but takes effect later.
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?
Updated · Volume $243.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| JD Vance out as VP by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| JD Vance out as VP by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| JD Vance out as VP by June 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market focuses on the December 31 timeframe; alternative horizons are all remote chances.
Context
Market-implied odds stand at 4.5% as of 13 min ago. The market settles to Yes if JD Vance stops being vice-president for any length of time before the market closes on Jan 1, 2027 (Eastern Time). An announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline triggers an immediate Yes, regardless of when the departure takes effect. Being detained, effectively removed, or permanently blocked from performing the duties also counts. The resolution relies on official statements from Mr. Vance or the US government, or on a consensus of credible news reports. The formal conditions that would trigger a resolution are the Jan 1, 2027 deadline and any official announcement—from Mr. Vance or the US government—that he has ceased to be vice-president. A consensus of credible reporting also qualifies.
FAQ
What does it mean for JD Vance to ‘cease to be vice-president’?
Any permanent departure from the role qualifies, including resignation, removal, or being effectively prevented from carrying out the duties (such as through detention). A temporary leave does not.
If an announcement is made before the deadline but the resignation takes effect later, does the market resolve Yes?
Yes. The market resolves to Yes as soon as an announcement of resignation or removal is made, even if the actual departure date falls after the deadline.
What happens if Mr. Vance is temporarily unable to perform his duties?
A temporary absence does not trigger a Yes. The market requires that he ceases to be vice-president permanently, is effectively removed, or is permanently prevented from fulfilling the role.
Where does the resolution information come from?
Official information from JD Vance and the United States government is the primary source. A consensus of credible reporting can also be used to determine the outcome.
Does the market resolve immediately once an event occurs?
Yes. For an announced resignation or removal, the market resolves to Yes right away. For other scenarios, such as detention or permanent incapacitation, resolution happens once the facts are confirmed by the resolution sources.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice