Sep 21, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 13.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Jerome Powell Out of Fed Board by December 31?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the likelihood of Jerome Powell departing the Federal Reserve Board by Jan 1, 2027 at 10.5%, a unlikely among traders. Trading volume stands at $447.9K.
10.5%-2.0 pts 24h
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Updated · Volume $447.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | 10.5% | -2.0 |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The “Yes” outcome dominates the market’s attention, with all other possibilities collectively priced as remote long shots.
Context
Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 19, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 19.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 19.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 27.5% to 19.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
The probability has fluctuated between 10.0% and 20.5% during the market’s lifespan, with the latest reading at 10.5% as of 15 min ago. Over the past day, it moved by -2.0 pts;
The market resolves to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold any position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between the market’s creation and 11:59 PM ET on Jan 1, 2027. A resignation as Chair while staying on the Board does not trigger a “Yes.” The resolution source is official U.S. Government information or a consensus of credible reporting. The formal conditions that could alter the probability revolve around the approaching deadline of Jan 1, 2027. Any credible announcement of Powell’s departure from the Board—whether via official channels or reliable news reports—would move the price. The evidentiary bar is set by the resolution criteria: U.S. Government confirmation or a reporting consensus.
FAQ
What does “out of Fed Board” mean exactly?
It means Jerome Powell must no longer hold any position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, even temporarily. Leaving the Chair role alone does not qualify.
How is the resolution date determined?
The market resolves based on events occurring before Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, as specified in the market’s listed end date.
What if Powell resigns as Chair but remains a Governor?
That does not satisfy the condition. He must leave the Board of Governors entirely for the market to resolve “Yes.”
What sources are used to verify the outcome?
Resolution relies on official U.S. Government information or, failing that, a consensus of credible reporting.
Does a brief absence count?
Yes, any period of time during which he ceases to hold a Board position, no matter how short, would trigger a “Yes” resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice