Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 76.0% to 65.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Kansas Senate Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price Republican chances at 73.5%, making them the favored outcome to win Kansas's Senate seat in 2026. Updated 17 min ago.
73.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $113.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | 73.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | 27.5% | +1.0 |
| Will a candidate not listed above win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
With Republicans the favored outcome, all other outcomes—including a Democratic victory—are seen as unlikely.
Context
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 81.0% to 78.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932. Will that change in November? — The Guardian US
Show earlier updates
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 81.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 81.5% to 79.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
The contract currently trades at 73.5%. Over the observation period, the price has moved between 65.0% and 81.5%. In the last 24 hours, it has changed by 0.0 pts;
The market resolves to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. It settles once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all called the race for the same candidate; if they do not agree, the official certification decides. Independents are not grouped under the Democratic or Republican outcomes, regardless of any party affiliation. Aside from polling and political developments, the formal triggers for settlement are the resolution source calls—or the certification deadline. The election itself takes place in November 2026. The contract’s end date is Nov 3, 2026.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they haven’t done so, it resolves based on the official certification.
Who calls the election for this market?
The resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. All three must call the race for the same candidate for the market to resolve; otherwise, the official certification is used.
Are independent or third-party candidates included?
Candidates are considered to represent a party if they are that party’s nominee. Independents are not encompassed by the Democratic or Republican options, regardless of any party affiliation. Third-party candidates may be added separately.
What happens if there is a run-off?
The market includes any run-offs in the 2026 Kansas Senate election. The winner is determined after all necessary rounds of voting.
Could the market resolve before the official certification?
Yes. If the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate before certification, the market resolves at that point.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice