Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 22.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Kash Patel out by December 31?: Live Probability & Odds
Markets price the likelihood at 23.0%, a a substantial minority view. The contract resolves early if an announcement of Patel's resignation or removal is made before 11:59 PM ET on December 31.
23.0%0.0 pts 24h
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Updated · Volume $1.7M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Kash Patel out by December 31? | 23.0% | 0.0 |
| Kash Patel out by September 30? | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Kash Patel out by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Kash Patel out by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Kash Patel out by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Kash Patel out by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Kash Patel out by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Kash Patel out by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline scenario of Patel departing by December 31 dominates trading; the other contracts, covering different timeframes, are all long shots.
Context
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 19.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 19.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 25.0% to 19.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 37.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 37.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
The contract currently trades at 23.0%, having moved 0.0 pts in the past 24 hours. Over the period, it has ranged from 21.0% to 29.5%. This level places the probability as a substantial minority view. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Kash Patel ceases to be FBI Director, even temporarily, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31. An announcement of resignation or removal before that deadline triggers immediate resolution, regardless of when the departure takes effect. If no such event occurs, the market settles to 'No'. The resolution source is official information from the Trump administration, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The formal conditions that could shift the price are the resolution deadline of Jan 1, 2027, any scheduled events that might force Patel's departure, and the reliability of reports cited as resolution triggers. Official administration statements or widely accepted media reports would serve as confirmations, and any credible indication of Patel's exit would send the probability sharply higher.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to 'Yes' if Kash Patel ceases to be FBI Director for any length of time by 11:59 PM ET on December 31; otherwise, it settles to 'No'. An announcement of his departure before then resolves the market early, even if the departure is scheduled for later.
What qualifies as ceasing to be Director?
Any interruption in his tenure, whether by resignation, removal, or temporary absence, for any period, triggers a 'Yes' resolution.
What is the resolution source?
The primary source is official information from the Trump administration. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official confirmation is unavailable.
When does trading end?
Trading halts at the earlier of the resolution trigger (an announcement) or the market's end date, December 31 at 11:59 PM ET.
Does the market consider interim replacements?
Yes, if Patel is temporarily replaced or steps aside for any reason, the market would resolve to 'Yes'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice