Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 77.0% to 100.0% — a 23.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Tokayev allies head for landslide victory in Kazakhstan elections — Al Jazeera
Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd Place — Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai electionsEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $139.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 100.0% | — |
| Will JSDP win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Baytaq win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Party T win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party H win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party A win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party W win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party D win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party L win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Adilet win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party K win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party N win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party C win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party E win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party G win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party J win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party O win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party S win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party V win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party Z win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Respublica win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will another party win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party Y win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party B win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Aq Jol win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party I win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party M win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party R win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party X win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party F win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will QHP win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party P win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party Q win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party U win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 90.5% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Kazakhstan parliamentary elections begin: What’s at stake? — Al Jazeera
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 77.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 81.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability rose from 60.5% to 71.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 59.0% to 64.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 51.5% to 62.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 51.5% to 62.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice