KS-04 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
As of 5 min ago, prediction markets price the Republican Party's chances in KS-04 at 92.5%. The contract will settle once the 2026 midterm election is called.
Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $71.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat? | 92.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat? | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the KS-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the KS-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the KS-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the KS-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the KS-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the KS-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican win is the clear expectation; all other outcomes, including a Democratic victory, are long shots.
Context
The probability has fluctuated between over the period tracked. At 92.5%, it reflects the latest market assessment. The market resolves according to the party of the winning candidate for Kansas's 4th congressional district. A candidate's party is their ballot-listed affiliation; if none is listed, it is the party they intend to caucus with at the time all House elections are called. Should ambiguity remain, resolution defers to the official Federal Election Commission results. Formal triggers for movement include the election itself on Nov 3, 2026, the consensus of credible reporting, and the final FEC certification. Until then, the price adjusts as news and polling data shift trader expectations.
FAQ
How does the market determine the winner's party?
It uses the ballot-listed affiliation. If a candidate runs without a party label, their party is based on the caucus they plan to join at the time the House elections are called.
What if the election result is contested?
If there is ambiguity, the market resolves to the Federal Election Commission's official result. Otherwise, it follows a consensus of credible reporting.
When does this market settle?
Settlement occurs after the 2026 midterm election, once a consensus of credible reporting emerges. There is no resolution before the election.
Does the market account for post-election legal challenges?
Only if those challenges lead to ambiguity that prevents a clear consensus; then the FEC's official result is used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice