Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 97.9% — a 4.3-point move over the past day.
KY-04 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Republican victory in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District at 96.5%, with the seat up for grabs in the 2026 midterm elections.
96.5%-0.8 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $44.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat? | 96.5% | -0.8 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the KY-04 House seat? | 0.9% | -0.3 |
| Will A win the KY-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the KY-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the KY-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the KY-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the KY-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the KY-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican candidate is strongly favored to win, while the remaining scenarios — including a Democratic victory — are all unlikely.
Context
Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 96.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
The contract currently trades at 96.5%. Its range over the period has been tight, between 92.5% and 98.3%. It moved -0.8 pts in the last day. The market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 seat in the 2026 U.S. House elections. If credible reporting provides a clear outcome, the market settles based on that consensus; otherwise, it falls back to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission. A candidate's party is taken from their ballot listing or, for those without one, from the party with which they last expressed an intent to caucus. The number could move in response to any developments that alter the electoral landscape, such as candidate announcements, fundraising figures, or polling data. The resolution source — a consensus of credible reporting or the FEC — provides a clear endpoint. The contract's end date of Nov 3, 2026 is the expected settlement date.
FAQ
How does this market determine the winner?
It resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections, as reported by credible media consensus or, if ambiguous, official FEC results.
What if a candidate runs as an independent but caucuses with a party?
If a candidate lacks a ballot-listed party affiliation, the market uses the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time the elections are conclusively called.
When will the market resolve?
It will resolve once the outcome of the KY-04 race is conclusively determined by the resolution sources, which may occur after the November 2026 elections.
Who provides the official results?
In the event of ambiguity, the market falls back to the official results published by the United States Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice