KY-06 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Republican Party's chances of holding Kentucky's 6th congressional district at 73.5%, with the 2026 midterms fast approaching on November 3, 2026.
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?
Updated · Volume $36.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat? | 73.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat? | 25.5% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the KY-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the KY-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the KY-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the KY-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the KY-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the KY-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Markets view the Republican Party as the heavy favorite to retain Kentucky's 6th district, while the Democratic Party's chances are a substantial minority view; the remaining outcomes are all seen as long shots.
Context
The contract's price, currently 73.5%, Over the past day it has shifted 0.0 pts, Total volume stands at $36.6K. The market resolves according to the party that wins the KY-06 seat in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by ballot listing, or if unlisted, by the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, the Federal Election Commission's official results serve as the backstop. The probability will shift as new information emerges about the race, such as candidate filings, polling, or national political dynamics. The key date for settlement is the election itself, Nov 4, 2026. The final outcome is recorded when credible reporting reaches consensus or the FEC publishes official results.
FAQ
How is the winner's party determined?
The market uses the candidate's ballot-listed party. If no party is listed, the party with which the candidate has most recently expressed intent to caucus is used.
What happens if the election result is contested?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity persists, it defaults to the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
Resolution occurs after the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026, once the outcome is conclusively called by credible sources.
Does a candidate's party change if they switch after the election?
No. Party affiliation is determined at the time the 2026 House elections are conclusively called, based on the candidate's status then.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice