Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 94.8% to 96.0% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
LA-02 House Election Winner: Live Market Odds
Prediction markets rate a Democratic victory in Louisiana’s 2nd district as near-certain, with contracts trading at 96.4%. The market will settle based on the 2026 midterm election results.
96.4%+0.1 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat?
Updated · Volume $61.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat? | 96.4% | +0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the LA-02 House seat? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the LA-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the LA-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the LA-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the LA-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the LA-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the LA-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Democratic win is near-certain, while the remaining outcomes are long shots.
Context
The probability has held steady at 96.4%. Over the past day, it moved +0.1 pts. The consensus has barely wavered, reflecting a seat widely expected to remain Democratic. The contract resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives on November 3, 2026. Party affiliation is determined by the ballot line; if none is listed, it is based on the party with which the candidate expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. In the event of ambiguity, the market defaults to the official Federal Election Commission results. The resolution date, Nov 4, 2026, is the primary marker. Any development that casts doubt on the Democratic hold could nudge the probability down, but for now the market prices in little chance of a flip.
FAQ
What determines the winning party in this market?
The contract resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-02 U.S. House seat in the November 2026 midterm elections, as determined by ballot affiliation or caucusing intent if no affiliation is listed.
How is the official result verified?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, it falls back on the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
What if a candidate changes parties after the election?
The market resolves based on the party affiliation at the time all House elections are conclusively called, not any later switches.
When does the market settle?
Settlement occurs after the election results are clear, using the resolution sources specified. The election date is Nov 4, 2026.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice