Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 36.5% to 18.0% — a 18.5-point move over the past day.
Sébastien Lecornu out as French PM: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Sébastien Lecornu will no longer be French prime minister by Jan 1, 2027 at 22.5%, a substantial minority view. He was reappointed on October 10 after resigning four days earlier.
22.5%-8.5 pts 24h
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $355.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? | 22.5% | -8.5 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by September 30, 2026? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by August 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by November 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by October 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome—Lecornu leaving office—dominates the market, while all other scenarios are long shots.
Context
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 50.0% to 25.5% — a 24.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 38.0% to 27.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 23.5% to 33.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Markets have priced this event as a substantial minority view over the life of the contract, with the probability currently at 22.5%. It has traded between 14.0% and 38.5%. This market resolves to 'Yes' if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before that date would settle the market to 'Yes' immediately, regardless of when the change takes effect. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. The key date is the market’s close on Jan 1, 2027. Any credible report that Lecornu has ceased to be prime minister during the window would settle the market instantly. Scheduled political events, such as a no-confidence vote or a government reshuffle, are not specified in the contract terms, but any development that triggers a formal change would be considered under the resolution rules.
FAQ
What triggers a 'Yes' resolution?
If Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as prime minister, even temporarily, between October 10 and December 31, 2025, per credible reporting.
What happens if he resigns but the resignation is not yet effective?
The market resolves to 'Yes' immediately upon the announcement, regardless of the effective date.
How is the resolution source determined?
A consensus of credible reporting, as stated in the market's terms.
Does a temporary departure count?
Yes, any length of time out of office within the specified window leads to a 'Yes' resolution.
What if no announcement is made by the end date?
If he remains in office through December 31, 2025, the market resolves to 'No'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice