Odds of Lee Jae-myung Arrest Before 2027

As of 7 min ago, the chance of arrest is 8.0%. Trading volume has reached $548.1K. To resolve to Yes, Lee must experience a qualifying arrest or detention. This includes being physically taken into custody, voluntarily surrendering to authorities in response to an arrest warrant, being formally booked, placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring, or surrendering at a police station or courthouse. Actions that do not count include an indictment without arrest, a warrant issued but not executed, or questioning without detention. The primary resolution source is official information from the arresting government or law enforcement, though a consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. The deadline is December 31, 2026. Any qualifying arrest event before that date could push the probability higher; conversely, the absence of such an event as the deadline nears would pressure it downward. The market settles based on whether an arrest occurs by that cutoff, as confirmed by the stated resolution sources.