Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
The chance that Lee Jae-myung leaves the presidency stands at 8.1%, putting the outcome in unlikely territory. The market resolves Yes if he departs for any stretch before Jan 1, 2027.
Updated · Volume $279.5K
The market sees Lee Jae-myung's departure as unlikely, with nearly all probability concentrated on the No side.
Context
The contract has largely hovered at levels consistent with unlikely odds. 2 min ago ago the probability ticked to 8.1%. Over its lifetime, the trade has ranged from 8.0% to 13.0%. To settle to Yes, the market requires that Lee Jae-myung cease to be president for any period—however brief—between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of resignation or removal before that cut-off resolves the contract immediately to Yes, even if the actual departure takes effect later. Detention, effective removal, or any permanent inability to perform presidential duties also triggers a Yes. The designated resolution sources are official information from Lee Jae-myung and the government of South Korea; a consensus of credible reporting can substitute when official word is absent. No scheduled events, elections, or polls drive the probability mechanically. The only binary that matters is whether Lee Jae-myung is formally no longer president before the year-end deadline. Any development that credibly signals his departure—such as a credible resignation announcement, a parliamentary impeachment vote, or a court ruling ending his tenure—could shift the price, but the final arbiter is the actual change in his status as captured by the resolution sources.
FAQ
What counts as Lee Jae-myung being 'out as president'?
Any period during which he does not hold the office, including resignation, removal, or permanent incapacity, between market creation and the expiry.
Does an announcement of resignation settle the market immediately?
Yes. If he or the government announces his resignation or removal before the market's end date, the contract resolves to Yes at once, even if the departure is set for a later date.
What happens if he is hospitalised but not formally removed?
A temporary absence or illness does not settle the market. Only detention, effective removal, or permanent prevention from carrying out the duties qualifies.
Who confirms the outcome?
Official statements from Lee Jae-myung and the South Korean government are primary; a consensus of credible media reports can also be used.
When does the market expire?
The final deadline is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Any departure before that triggers Yes.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice