Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
MA-01 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
As of 6 min ago, prediction markets price a Democratic win in Massachusetts' 1st congressional district at 95.0%, with the contest set for the November 2026 midterm elections.
95.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the MA-01 House seat?
Updated · Volume $51.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the MA-01 House seat? | 95.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MA-01 House seat? | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MA-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MA-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MA-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MA-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MA-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MA-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic candidate is strongly favored. A Republican win is seen as unlikely, while the few other possible outcomes are considered remote.
Context
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 96.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
The probability of a Democratic victory currently sits at 95.0%. In the past day, the contract has moved by 0.0 pts; Total volume stands at $51.9K. The market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-01 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections on Nov 3, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or, if unaffiliated, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The outcome is settled based on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission's official results used in case of ambiguity. The formal resolution date, Nov 3, 2026, anchors the timeline. Before then, any changes in candidate filings or party affiliations could affect the market. The eventual winner will be confirmed by the FEC or credible news sources, as laid out in the market rules.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, specifically on November 3, 2026, when the winner of the MA-01 House seat is determined.
How is a candidate’s party decided?
A candidate’s party is based on their ballot-listed affiliation. If no party is listed, the market looks at the party with which they most recently said they would caucus.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
The market first looks for a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it defaults to the official Federal Election Commission results.
Does this market cover the general election or the primary?
It covers the general election for the MA-01 House seat in November 2026.
What source confirms the winner?
The Federal Election Commission is the ultimate source, but a consensus of credible reporting can resolve the market earlier if it is clear.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice