MA-04 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Democratic Party's chances of holding Massachusetts' 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterms at 97.3%, near-certain for the incumbent party.
Will the Democratic Party win the MA-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $47.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the MA-04 House seat? | 97.3% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MA-04 House seat? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MA-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Democratic retention of the seat is the overwhelming favourite; the cluster of alternatives — a Republican flip, an independent win, or any other party outcome — are all treated as distant tail risks.
Context
The contract has tracked Democratic odds over the monitored window. It now sits at 97.3%. This market settles on the party of the winning candidate in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House election for Massachusetts' 4th congressional district. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if unaffiliated, by the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The outcome relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the ultimate backstop if results are ambiguous. The contract's price will shift with developments heading into Election Day on Nov 3, 2026. After the vote, resolution depends on the FEC's official tabulation and corroborating reports from major news organisations — any delay or dispute in those sources could prolong the settlement timeline.
FAQ
How does the market determine a candidate's party?
It looks first at the party listed on the ballot. For a candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation, it uses the party they have most recently said they would caucus with in Congress.
What happens if an independent or third-party candidate wins?
If they have expressed an intent to caucus with Democrats or Republicans, the market resolves accordingly. Otherwise it resolves to their own party — so a genuine independent or third-party victory is a possible, if unlikely, outcome.
When does the market resolve?
After the 2026 midterm House elections are conclusively called. Resolution follows a consensus of credible news reports, or the official Federal Election Commission tally if there is any doubt.
What if the election results are contested?
The market waits for the official outcome as reported by the FEC. It will not settle on partial or provisional results.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice