Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 86.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $245.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Jamie Zahlaway Belsito be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Dominick Pangallo be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Diann Slavit Baylis be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Rachel Creemers be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Beth Andres-Beck be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Kevin Larivee be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Rick Jakious be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Mariah Lancaster be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | 0.0% | — |
| Will John Beccia be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | 0.0% | — |
| Will another candidate be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 85.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 81.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 78.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 76.5% to 81.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 69.5% — a 30.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: El-Sayed wins Michigan Democratic Senate primary — Al Jazeera
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 25.5% to 64.5% — a 38.9-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Left-wing political outsider wins Democratic Senate primary in Michigan — BBC News
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 76.0% to 55.5% — a 20.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Left-wing political outsider wins Democratic Senate primary in Michigan — BBC News
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 57.5% to 67.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Troy Jackson secures Democratic nomination for Maine Senate seat after chaotic primary race — The Guardian
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice