Macron Out by July 2026: Market Odds
Prediction markets see the chance of Emmanuel Macron departing the Élysée by July 2026 as 5.1%, unlikely.
Updated · Volume $2.2M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Macron out by December 31, 2026? | 5.1% | -0.1 |
| Macron out by October 31, 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Macron out by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Macron out in 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Macron out by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The main outcome, Macron leaving by July 2026, was priced at 5.1%; the alternative scenarios were even more remote.
Context
The market priced the odds at 5.1% as of 13 min ago. Over its lifetime, the probability ranged from 3.5% to 11.7%, with total volume reaching $2.2M. The contract resolves according to whether Macron leaves the presidency for any stretch during 2025. If he departs—through resignation, removal, or another mechanism—anytime between 2 January and 31 December 2025 (inclusive), it settles to Yes. A departure before the expiry date triggers immediate resolution. Confirmation relies primarily on official French government information, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It reflects the probability that Emmanuel Macron leaves the presidency of France at any point between 2 January and 31 December 2025. Even a brief departure during that window qualifies.
How does the market resolve?
If Macron leaves office within the 2025 window, the contract resolves to Yes immediately upon confirmation. Otherwise, after 31 December 2025 it settles to No.
What information is used to verify his departure?
The primary source is official statements from the French government, but credible reporting may also serve as a resolution source.
When will final settlement occur if he does not leave?
The market will resolve to No after 31 December 2025 if no qualifying departure has been recorded by then.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice