Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 95.0% to 96.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Massachusetts Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price a Democratic victory in the 2026 Massachusetts governor race at 95.7%. Trading volume stands at $89.8K.
95.7%-0.1 pts 24h
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $89.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | 95.7% | -0.1 |
| Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | 4.0% | +0.1 |
| Will Option F win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option B win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option E win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option I win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option C win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option A win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option D win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option H win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option G win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option J win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democrats winning the governorship is strongly favored, while all other outcomes are long shots.
Context
The market currently prices a Democratic win at 95.7%. The market resolves to the winner of the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election. A candidate is considered the nominee of a party if officially designated. Independents are not covered by the Democratic or Republican options, regardless of any past affiliation. Resolution relies on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The contract settles once all three outlets call the race for the same candidate. If their calls differ, it resolves based on official certification. The approaching election date (Nov 3, 2026) is the main scheduled factor that could shift the odds as new information emerges. The resolution triggers—unanimous calls from the three designated news outlets—mean the market will remain open until media consensus or official certification occurs.
FAQ
What determines the winner of the Massachusetts governor election market?
The market resolves to the candidate who wins the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election.
How does the market handle independent candidates?
Candidates who run as independents are not included in the Democratic or Republican options, regardless of any past or present party affiliation.
Who are the resolution sources for this market?
The market uses the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. It resolves once all three call the race for the same candidate.
What happens if the three sources do not call the same candidate?
If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves once the race is called by all three designated sources or after official certification is available, whichever occurs first.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice