MD-01 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give the Republican Party a 90.5% probability of winning the MD-01 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?
Updated · Volume $62.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat? | 90.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MD-01 House seat? | 8.5% | -0.5 |
| Will C win the MD-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MD-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MD-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MD-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MD-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MD-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican candidate is the clear favorite, while the Democratic candidate remains unlikely; all other outcomes are long shots.
Context
The market-implied probability for the Republican candidate has fluctuated between 87.5% and 94.5% and now stands at 90.5%. The 24-hour move is 0.0 pts. Resolution depends on the party of the winning candidate in the 2026 midterm elections, set for Nov 3, 2026. A candidate’s party is determined by ballot listing or caucusing intent at the time the House elections are conclusively called. The market settles based on a consensus of credible reporting, or, if disputed, the official Federal Election Commission results. The market is tied to the outcome of the midterm election on Nov 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official Federal Election Commission results, with any ambiguity resolved by consensus reporting.
FAQ
How does the market determine the winning party?
It uses the party listed on the ballot for the winning candidate. If no party is listed, it relies on the party the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus with at the time all House elections are called.
What if the election result is disputed?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus is unclear, it resolves based on the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When will the market settle?
Settlement occurs after the midterm elections on November 3, 2026, once the outcome is clear from reporting or official certification.
Does this market cover the primary elections?
No, the market only concerns the general election winner in the MD-01 district. Primary outcomes do not directly affect resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice