Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 97.0% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
MD-04 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Democratic Party at 97.4% to retain Maryland's 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterms, with data updated 2 min ago.
97.4%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the MD-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $47.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the MD-04 House seat? | 97.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MD-04 House seat? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MD-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MD-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MD-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MD-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MD-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MD-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party win is near-certain; the remaining scenarios are collectively negligible.
Context
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 96.5% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
The contract's probability currently sits at 97.4%, updated 2 min ago. In the past day, it moved 0.0 pts. Total volume stands at $47.1K. The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins Maryland's 4th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation; if not listed as Democrat or Republican, it is based on their most recent expressed intent to caucus. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback if ambiguity arises. The market resolves based on the outcome of the general election. The election is set for Nov 3, 2026. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It predicts the party of the winning candidate in Maryland's 4th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How is the winner's party determined?
It is based on the ballot-listed affiliation of the winning candidate. If the candidate does not have a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties, the party is determined by their most recently expressed intent to caucus as of the time the elections are called.
What sources are used for resolution?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves based on the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections are held and the winner's party is determined, based on consensus credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice