ME-01 House Election Winner: Live Odds & Analysis
Prediction markets give the Democratic Party a 94.5% chance of winning the ME-01 House seat, making them strongly favored to hold the district. The outcome is determined by the 2026 midterm election results.
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-01 House seat?
Updated · Volume $45.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the ME-01 House seat? | 94.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the ME-01 House seat? | 3.3% | -0.4 |
| Will C win the ME-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the ME-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the ME-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the ME-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the ME-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the ME-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic win dominates trading, with the seven alternative outcomes collectively attracting minimal interest.
Context
The probability currently sits at 94.5%. The contract settles according to the party of the candidate who wins Maine’s 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate’s party is taken from their ballot-listed affiliation; if unaffiliated, it is based on their most recent stated intent to caucus. The result is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission’s official results used to break any ambiguity. The market’s price hinges on the election itself on Nov 3, 2026 and on the resolution mechanism: a consensus of credible reporting, with the FEC as the default. No other deadlines or contingencies are specified in the market rules.
FAQ
How does the market determine the winner?
It resolves to the party of the candidate declared the winner of the ME-01 House seat in the 2026 midterms, as reported by a consensus of credible news sources.
What if the result is disputed?
If there is ambiguity in the reporting, the market falls back to the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
How is a candidate’s party determined?
A candidate’s party is taken from their ballot-listed affiliation. If none is listed, it is based on the party with which they most recently said they would caucus.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, once the outcome is reported conclusively.
What happens if a third-party or independent candidate wins?
The market is binary between Democrat and Republican. If the winner is not affiliated with either party on the ballot, their intent to caucus determines the party for resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice