Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections at 91.5%.

91.5%0.0 pts 24h

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Updated · Volume $598.1K

82%86%91%96%Aug 1Aug 8Aug 16Aug 23Aug 31
OutcomeProbability24h
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?91.5%0.0
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?9.5%+0.5
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.1%0.0
Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.1%0.0
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.1%0.0
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.1%0.0
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.1%0.0
Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.1%0.0
Will another party win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0
Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 99.9% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 24 tracked outcomes and $598.1K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections, is priced at 91.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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