Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 76.0% to 81.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections at 82.5%.
82.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Updated · Volume $1.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 82.5% | +1.0 |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 18.5% | 0.0 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.9% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 82.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 81.5% to 77.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: World reacts to AfD victory in east Germany state election — Al Jazeera
Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 83.0% to 77.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: World reacts to AfD victory in east Germany state election — Al Jazeera
Show earlier updates
Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 84.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Far-right AfD wins key German state election but may fail to secure majority — The Guardian
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 81.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 84.5% to 78.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 93.5% to 80.0% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 24 tracked outcomes and $1.0M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections, is priced at 82.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice