Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections at 82.5%.

82.5%0.0 pts 24h

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Updated · Volume $397.5K

57%69%80%91%Jun 14Jun 22Jun 29Jul 7Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?82.5%0.0
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?17.5%-1.0
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.1%0.0
Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.1%0.0
Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.1%0.0
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.1%0.0
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.1%0.0
Will FW win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.1%0.0
Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will another party win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%
Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?0.0%

The top 5 outcomes account for 100.1% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 24 tracked outcomes and $397.5K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections, is priced at 82.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice