Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 3.7% to 6.9% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
Meloni Out as Prime Minister of Italy: Live Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 6.5% chance that Meloni is out of office by December 31, a proposition that is unlikely. The contract settles Yes if she steps down or is removed for any period between December 5 and that cutoff.
6.5%0.0 pts 24h
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?
Updated · Volume $168.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by September 30? | 1.3% | -0.1 |
| Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The 'Meloni out by December 31' contract dominates trading, while other settlement scenarios are all long shots.
Context
The market has traded at unlikely levels, now at 6.5%. This market resolves to Yes if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be Prime Minister for any stretch between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of resignation or removal before that deadline triggers an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of the effective date. Otherwise it settles No. The resolution source is the Italian government, with a consensus of credible reporting accepted as a fallback. What would move the number are formal milestones: any official statement or event that indicates an early departure, especially before December 31. After that date, attention shifts to the market's end date of Jan 1, 2027 and any signals of a resignation on the horizon. The final call rests on government sources or credible media consensus.
FAQ
What triggers a Yes resolution?
The market resolves Yes if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be Prime Minister at any point between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026. Even a brief departure during that window counts.
Does a resignation announced before the end date but effective later count?
Yes. An announcement of resignation or removal before the market's end date immediately resolves the market to Yes, irrespective of the effective date.
Who determines whether the event has occurred?
Primary sourcing is the government of Italy. If that is ambiguous, the market relies on a consensus of credible reporting.
What if she leaves office for a day and then returns?
Any period out of office in the defined timeframe triggers a Yes, even if she returns shortly after.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice