Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 93.0% to 82.3% — a 10.6-point move over the past day.
Mexico Legislative Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) as strongly favored to secure the most seats in Mexico's Chamber of Deputies, with the contract at 91.0%.
91.0%-0.4 pts 24h
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?
Updated · Volume $104.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 91.0% | -0.4 |
| Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 6.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 2.5% | +0.7 |
| Will Citizens’ Movement (MC) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the Labor Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Party M win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party F win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party L win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party U win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Y win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party S win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party A win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party B win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party D win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party T win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party N win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party V win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party P win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party E win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party R win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party K win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Q win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party C win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party W win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party J win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party I win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party O win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Z win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party X win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party G win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party H win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
All other parties are considered long shots in this market.
Context
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 86.4% — a 7.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 82.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Morena's contract currently sits at 91.0%. It has traded between 81.1% and 93.0% over its lifetime. In the past day, the price moved -0.4 pts. The market resolves to the party that wins the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies in the June 6, 2027 election. If the outcome is not definitively known by March 31, 2028, the contract settles as 'Other'. Ties are broken first by the number of valid votes received, and then by alphabetical order of the parties' abbreviations if necessary. Settlement is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with the official results from Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE) as the final authority. The resolution deadline is Jun 6, 2027.
FAQ
What outcome does this market track?
It tracks which political party wins the most seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies in the 2027 legislative election.
How are ties in seat counts resolved?
If multiple parties tie for the most seats, the market resolves in favor of the party that received more valid votes. If that also ties, the party whose abbreviation comes first alphabetically is declared the winner.
What happens if the election results are delayed?
If the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Who determines the official results?
The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the official results from Mexico's National Electoral Institute (INE) as the ultimate source.
Does this market include the presidential election?
No, it covers only the legislative election for the Chamber of Deputies.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice