MI-02 House Race: Market Probability
Markets price a Republican hold in Michigan’s 2nd district at 98.0%, a level that sits firmly in near-certain territory.
Will the Republican Party win the MI-02 House seat?
Updated · Volume $53.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the MI-02 House seat? | 98.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MI-02 House seat? | 0.8% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MI-02 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market treats a Republican hold as the dominant scenario, with all other possibilities priced as long shots.
Context
Trading reflects a race that markets have all but decided. The Republican contract currently sits at 98.0%. Over the last day, the price moved 0.0 pts; Volume stands at $53.9K. Resolution hinges on the party of the candidate who wins the MI-02 seat in the 2026 midterms, held on Nov 4, 2026. Party affiliation is taken from the ballot listing—or, absent that, from the party with which the candidate has most recently expressed an intent to caucus. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If the result is ambiguous, the market falls back to the official tally published by the Federal Election Commission. Formal triggers for price movement are limited. The election date itself—Nov 4, 2026—is the obvious catalyst. A candidate switching parties or altering their listed affiliation would also feed directly into the market’s resolution logic. Disputes over the count could inject uncertainty, given the two-tier resolution mechanism of media consensus and FEC data.
FAQ
How is a candidate's party determined for this market?
The market uses the party listed on the ballot. If no party is listed, it uses the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time the House elections are conclusively called.
What happens if the election result is contested?
Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting. Should that prove ambiguous, the market uses the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
After the 2026 midterm elections on November 3, 2026, once a winner is conclusively called by the resolution sources.
Could a third-party or independent candidate affect the outcome?
Only if that candidate wins. Their party would be determined by ballot listing or caucus intent. If they caucus with a major party, that party would be deemed the winner.
What role does the Federal Election Commission play?
The FEC serves as the backstop resolution source. If media consensus is ambiguous, the market resolves to the FEC's official election results.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice