MI-06 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price a Democratic hold in Michigan's 6th district at 95.5%, making it near-certain to retain the seat in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-06 House seat?
Updated · Volume $51.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the MI-06 House seat? | 95.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MI-06 House seat? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MI-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MI-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MI-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MI-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MI-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MI-06 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Democratic victory is near-certain, while all other outcomes are long shots.
Context
The probability has held within a range, currently at 95.5%. The market resolves to the party of the winning candidate in the MI-06 congressional race, based on the 2026 midterm elections held on November 3, 2026. A candidate’s party is determined by ballot-listed affiliation, or if not listed, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at the time all House elections are conclusively called. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, it defers to official Federal Election Commission results. The number will move on any news that changes the competitive outlook for MI-06. The formal resolution hinges on the election itself on Nov 3, 2026, and the subsequent reporting by credible news organisations or the FEC. No other deadlines or triggers shift the contract before then.
FAQ
How is a winner's party determined?
The market uses the party listed on the ballot. If a candidate has no ballot-listed party, the market looks to the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called.
What happens if the election result is disputed?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If that consensus is ambiguous, it falls back to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
Resolution occurs after all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources, which will be on or after the midterm election date of November 3, 2026.
Does the market consider caucusing intentions?
Yes. For a candidate without a clear ballot party, the market determines party affiliation based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus when the elections are called.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice