Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 92.5% to 97.3% — a 4.7-point move over the past day.
Around this time: El-Sayed, Stevens face off in Michigan Democratic Senate primary — Al Jazeera
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $155.9K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Alexandra Prieditis be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Muhammad Salman Rais be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | 0.0% | — |
| Will another candidate be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Josh Cowen be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Elyon Badger be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 87.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 79.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 79.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 69.0% to 80.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Troy Jackson secures Democratic nomination for Maine Senate seat after chaotic primary race — The Guardian
Show earlier updates
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 69.0% to 83.0% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Troy Jackson secures Democratic nomination for Maine Senate seat after chaotic primary race — The Guardian
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 62.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 54.5% to 65.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 47.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 55.0% to 40.5% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice