Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 96.5% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
MI-11 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have the Democratic Party as near-certain to retain the MI-11 district, with the probability trading at 96.5%.
96.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat?
Updated · Volume $79.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat? | 96.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MI-11 House seat? | 2.6% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MI-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MI-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MI-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MI-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MI-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MI-11 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic win case is near-certain; the remaining possible outcomes are all regarded as distant long shots.
Context
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 96.4% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
The headline probability stands at 96.5%. The market resolves based on the party of the candidate who wins Michigan's 11th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. A candidate's affiliation is determined by their ballot listing or, absent that, the party with which they have most recently expressed intent to caucus when the House races are conclusively called. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguous, the official Federal Election Commission results serve as the final arbiter. The contract is anchored to the election outcome. The scheduled resolution date is Nov 3, 2026. Any credible poll, district-level political development, or change in the perceived strength of the candidates could cause the probability to fluctuate. The FEC's official certification marks the definitive settlement point.
FAQ
How does the market determine which party a candidate belongs to?
It uses the candidate's ballot-listed party. If none is listed, it considers the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus when the election is called.
What if the election result is disputed or unclear?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting. Only if that remains ambiguous does it fall back to the official results published by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the election take place?
The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, when voters go to the polls in all 435 House districts, including Michigan's 11th.
Can the market resolve before November 2026?
No, the market only resolves once the winner is identified after the election and any reporting consensus is reached, or upon the FEC's official certification if needed.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice