Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 97.8% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.
MI-12 House Election Winner: Live Probability
Prediction markets price the Democratic Party's chances of taking the MI-12 congressional district at 96.8%, making it the clear favorite for the 2026 midterms.
96.8%+0.1 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-12 House seat?
Updated · Volume $40.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the MI-12 House seat? | 96.8% | +0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MI-12 House seat? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MI-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MI-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MI-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MI-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MI-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MI-12 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market considers a Democratic victory near-certain, while the other scenarios, including a Republican win, are viewed as unlikely.
Context
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 97.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
As of 6 min ago, the probability stands at 96.8%. This market resolves according to the party of the winning candidate, as determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if none, the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus. Settlement relies on a consensus of credible reporting, and the Federal Election Commission’s official results serve as the definitive source in case of ambiguity. Resolution hinges on the 2026 midterms, which are scheduled for Nov 4, 2026. Until then, the probability may adjust in response to news that shifts the electoral outlook, but the final determination rests on the certified vote count from the FEC.
FAQ
How is the winning candidate’s party determined?
Party affiliation is based on the candidate’s ballot-listed party. If no party is listed, the affiliation is determined by the party with which the candidate most recently expressed intent to caucus.
What happens if the result is unclear or disputed?
The market first looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity persists, it resolves solely on the official results issued by the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, once the winner is confirmed by credible reporting or the FEC.
What if the winning candidate is an independent?
If an independent candidate does not have a ballot-listed affiliation, the market will assign them to the party they have most recently indicated they will caucus with.
How often is the probability updated?
The probability reflects the latest trading activity on the prediction market and updates continuously as new trades occur.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice