Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 93.8% to 96.6% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
MI-13 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
The chance of a Democratic win in Michigan’s 13th congressional district sits at 97.7%, putting the party in a near-certain position to win the seat in the 2026 midterms, as of 6 min ago.
97.7%+0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-13 House seat?
Updated · Volume $49.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the MI-13 House seat? | 97.7% | +0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MI-13 House seat? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MI-13 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MI-13 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MI-13 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MI-13 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MI-13 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MI-13 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic win scenario is the clear expectation; all other outcomes trade at remote levels.
Context
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 93.8% to 96.0% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
The market settles based on the party of the winning candidate in Michigan’s 13th district on Nov 4, 2026. A candidate's party is taken from their ballot listing; if that is absent, the party they last expressed intent to caucus with is used. The result is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to the Federal Election Commission’s official count if the picture is unclear. The election on Nov 4, 2026 is the only scheduled event that will determine the contract's outcome. No other formal milestones are stated in the rules.
FAQ
How is a candidate's party determined if their ballot listing is unclear?
If a candidate has no ballot-listed affiliation to either major party, the market uses the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at the time the House elections are called.
What happens if credible sources disagree on the winner?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity remains, it falls back on official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the 2026 midterm elections are conclusively called, which is expected by late 2026. The exact date depends on the speed of official reporting.
Does the market account for recounts or legal challenges?
Yes, the consensus approach typically waits for the outcome of significant legal proceedings. If needed, the FEC official results serve as the final arbiter.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice