Michigan Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give the Democratic nominee a 92.0% chance of winning the 2026 Michigan governor’s race. The resolution relies on calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $206.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | 92.0% | -0.5 |
| Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | 6.5% | -0.5 |
| Will an independent win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Option G win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option J win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option C win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option F win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option B win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option E win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option H win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option I win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option D win the Michigan governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
A Democratic win is the strong consensus in these markets, while a Republican victory is viewed as unlikely; all other scenarios are long shots.
Context
The market-implied likelihood of a Democratic victory stands at 92.0%[[opt:, after trading between 85.5% and 92.5% over the life of the contract[[/opt]].. The market resolves based on the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election. A candidate is considered the nominee of their party once formally designated. Independent runs are separate from the Democratic and Republican options, even if the candidate has a party affiliation. The resolution source is a trio of networks: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market settles once all three outlets call the race for the same candidate. If they fail to agree, the official state certification serves as the fallback. The primary formal trigger is the election itself[[opt:, scheduled for Nov 3, 2026[[/opt]]. Before that, the emergence of clear nominees or unexpected independent candidacies could be processed by the market, but the resolution rule leaves no room for ambiguity: only the election outcome as verified by the three named sources or certification matters.
FAQ
What triggers resolution of this market?
The market resolves when the winner of the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election is determined, as confirmed by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all calling the race for the same candidate. If they disagree, it settles based on the official state certification.
When will the market settle?
There is no fixed settlement date. The market stays open until the three designated sources issue a unanimous call, or until the state certifies an official result.
What if a candidate runs as an independent?
Candidates who run as independents are not covered by the Democratic or Republican options, even if they have a prior or current party affiliation. Separate independent contracts may be added later.
How are party nominees determined?
A candidate is treated as the party’s nominee once they are formally designated as such for the general election.
Can the market add new outcomes?
Yes, additional candidates or parties (such as Greens, Libertarians, or prominent independents) may be incorporated if needed.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice