Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 50.0% to 37.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Mike Johnson to Leave Speakership by End of 2025: Live Odds
Markets price the chance of Mike Johnson resigning or leaving the speakership by the deadline at 0.5%, a level that prediction markets see as effectively ruled out.
0.5%0.0 pts 24h
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by September 30?
Updated · Volume $118.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Johnson out as Speaker by September 30? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mike Johnson out as Speaker by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Mike Johnson out as Speaker by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Yes outcome commands virtually all the probability volume; the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
The price currently stands at 0.5%.. The contract settles as Yes if Mike Johnson announces his resignation or ceases to be Speaker for any length of time between the start of the coverage period and Apr 10, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement before that deadline is sufficient, regardless of when the actual departure occurs. The resolution source is official US government information, official statements by Johnson or his representative, or a consensus of credible reporting. Formally, the market reacts to any declaration or event that meets the contract’s definition within the active window, which closes on Apr 10, 2027. The threshold for resolution is high: only official channels or widely-corroborated reports can trigger a settlement, so unverified rumors are unlikely to shift the price materially.
FAQ
What qualifies as Mike Johnson leaving the speakership?
Any announcement of resignation or any period—no matter how brief—during which he ceases to hold the office between the start of the coverage period and the resolution deadline.
Does an announcement before the deadline count?
Yes, an announcement that he will resign, made before the deadline, is sufficient for a Yes resolution regardless of when the actual departure takes place.
How is the outcome verified?
The market uses official US government information, official statements from Johnson or his representative, or a consensus of credible reporting.
What happens if there is conflicting information?
Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting; isolated or unconfirmed reports are unlikely to settle the market on their own.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice