Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 83.5% to 70.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: El-Sayed wins Michigan Democratic Senate primary — Al Jazeera
Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in MinnesotaEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $472.2K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Keith Ellison be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Steve Simon be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Betty McCollum be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Jacob Frey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Melisa López Franzen be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | 0.1% | — |
| Will David Wellstone be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | 0.1% | — |
| Will another candidate be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Melisa Hortman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 73.5% to 83.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Left-wing political outsider wins Democratic Senate primary in Michigan — BBC News
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 83.5% to 73.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan Democratic primary for Senate, NBC projects — Al Jazeera
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 81.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 81.0% to 79.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 81.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 81.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Troy Jackson secures Democratic nomination for Maine Senate seat after chaotic primary race — The Guardian
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 81.0% to 78.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability rose from 75.5% to 81.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Troy Jackson poised to replace Graham Platner as Democratic nominee in Maine Senate race — The Guardian
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice