Minnesota Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the Democrats' chance of retaining the Minnesota governorship in 2026 at 95.5%, near-certain.
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $70.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | 95.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | 5.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Other win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option E win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option J win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option F win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option D win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option B win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option H win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option C win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option I win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option G win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Option A win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democrats are near-certain; the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
The Democrats' probability now stands at 95.5%, near-certain. The market resolves to the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election. A candidate is considered the party nominee if they are the official nominee. The resolution source is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The contract settles once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If they fail to do so, the outcome is determined by the official certification. The key formal trigger for a move is the election itself on Nov 3, 2026, when the sources will begin making calls. Until then, polling and campaign developments may shift the odds, but the resolution ultimately hinges on a unanimous media call or the certified result.
FAQ
How is the winner determined?
The market resolves to the nominee of the winning party as called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC once all three agree on the same candidate.
What if the sources don't agree?
If the three sources do not call the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification of the election results.
Are independent candidates included?
No. The Democrat and Republican options cover only the official nominees of those parties. Independent candidates are not included but may be added as separate outcomes later.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves when all three sources have called the winner, or upon official certification, following the 2026 election.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice