Minnesota Senate Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price a Democratic hold at 92.5%, making it strongly favored. The contract settles once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
Updated · Volume $91.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | 92.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| Will a candidate not listed above win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic win is the clear front-runner, while all other outcomes are long shots.
Context
The probability of a Democratic victory now stands at 92.5%. Over the past day, it moved by 0.0 pts;
The market resolves to the winner of the 2026 midterm election, including any run-offs. A candidate represents a party if they are that party's nominee. Independents are not covered by the Democratic or Republican options. The resolution relies on the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC: the contract settles once all three call the race for the same candidate. If they do not agree, it resolves based on the official certification. Formally, the probability could change as the resolution date (Nov 3, 2026) approaches, or when any of the three resolution sources—Associated Press, Fox News, or NBC—call the race for a candidate.
FAQ
How does the market determine the winner?
It looks to the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; once all three agree on the same candidate, that candidate is the winner.
What happens if the election goes to a run-off?
The market includes any run-offs; the winner after all necessary rounds is the resolution target.
How are independent or third-party candidates treated?
Independents are not included in the Democratic or Republican options. They may be added as separate outcomes.
What if the three sources never all call the race?
If all three never agree, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Does the market resolve on election night?
It resolves only after all three sources call the race or upon official certification, which may be after election night.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice