Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 15.8% to 22.7% — a 6.9-point move over the past day.
MLB 2026 American League Champion: Market Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series at 24.5%.
24.5%+0.5 pts 24h
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
Updated · Volume $4.3M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 24.5% | +0.5 |
| Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 23.9% | -0.9 |
| Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 12.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Houston Astros win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 11.1% | +1.1 |
| Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 10.9% | -0.2 |
| Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 6.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 3.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 3.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 1.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Minnesota Twins win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Athletics win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| Will Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another team win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 84.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 16 tracked outcomes and $4.3M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series, is priced at 24.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice