Oct 16, 2026
Probability rose from 47.6% to 62.6% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
MLB 2026 American League Champion: Market Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series at 62.5%.
62.5%-1.5 pts 24h
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
Updated · Volume $4.9M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 62.5% | -1.5 |
| Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 37.6% | +2.4 |
| Will Houston Astros win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Minnesota Twins win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Detroit Tigers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another team win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Athletics win the 2026 American League Championship Series? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
Oct 15, 2026
Probability rose from 43.5% to 56.0% — a 12.6-point move over the past day.
Oct 14, 2026
Probability rose from 41.4% to 55.8% — a 14.3-point move over the past day.
Oct 14, 2026
Probability fell from 70.0% to 50.5% — a 19.4-point move over the past day.
Oct 13, 2026
Probability rose from 36.3% to 58.2% — a 21.9-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Oct 13, 2026
Probability rose from 36.3% to 50.0% — a 13.7-point move over the past day.
Oct 12, 2026
Probability rose from 59.6% to 63.1% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Oct 8, 2026
Probability rose from 51.0% to 65.4% — a 14.4-point move over the past day.
Oct 8, 2026
Probability rose from 49.2% to 61.4% — a 12.2-point move over the past day.
Oct 6, 2026
Probability rose from 35.8% to 50.9% — a 15.2-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 16 tracked outcomes and $4.9M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series, is priced at 62.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice