MLB: Player to Hit 50+ Home Runs: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Yordan Alvarez hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season at 45.0%.

45.0%0.0 pts 24h

Will Yordan Alvarez hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?

Updated · Volume $24.7K

12%28%43%58%Jul 2Jul 5Jul 8Jul 11Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Yordan Alvarez hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?45.0%0.0
Will Kyle Schwarber hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?44.5%0.0
Will James Wood hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?40.1%-0.8
Will Junior Caminero hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?38.4%+1.3
Will Hunter Goodman hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?11.7%+0.4
Will Nick Kurtz hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?10.5%-2.5
Will Matt Olson hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?9.0%+5.9
Will Ben Rice hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?4.4%-33.5
Will Shea Langeliers hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?3.2%
Will Shohei Ohtani hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?3.1%
Will Colson Montgomery hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?3.0%
Will Kazuma Okamoto hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?3.0%
Will Manny Machado hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?2.9%
Will Byron Buxton hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?2.8%
Will Pete Alonso hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?2.5%
Will Bryce Harper hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?2.5%
Will Mike Trout hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?2.4%
Will Aaron Judge hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?1.9%
Will Miguel Vargas hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?1.8%
Will Brandon Lowe hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?1.8%
Will Dillon Dingler hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?1.8%
Will Christian Walker hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?1.7%
Will Juan Soto hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?1.7%
Will Ketel Marte hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?1.7%
Will Andy Pages hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?1.6%
Will Wilson Contreras hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?1.5%
Will Munetaka Murakami hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?1.3%
Will CJ Abrams hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?1.1%
Will Jordan Walker hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.8%
Will Dansby Swanson hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?0.7%

The top 5 outcomes account for 179.6% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 30 tracked outcomes and $24.7K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Yordan Alvarez hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season, is priced at 45.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice