Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 42.4% to 62.8% — a 20.4-point move over the past day.
MLS 2026 Golden Boot Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot at 59.2%.
59.2%+10.4 pts 24h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?
Updated · Volume $902.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 59.2% | +10.4 |
| Will Petar Musa win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 21.0% | -1.2 |
| Will Sam Surridge win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 4.5% | +1.3 |
| Will Hugo Cuypers win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 3.2% | +2.1 |
| Will Denis Bouanga win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 3.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tai Baribo win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 2.7% | -0.1 |
| Will Evander win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 1.8% | -2.9 |
| Will Kévin Denkey win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.9% | -0.3 |
| Will Brian White win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.9% | +0.2 |
| Will Hany Mukhtar win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.7% | -0.3 |
| Will Martín Ojeda win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.7% | -1.0 |
| Will Milan Iloski win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.6% | -0.1 |
| Will Prince-Osei Owusu win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.5% | -0.1 |
| Will Dejan Joveljić win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.4% | -0.2 |
| Will Germán Berterame win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Albert Rusnák win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Louis Munteanu win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | +0.1 |
| Will Tadeo Allende win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Marco Pašalić win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Danny Musovski win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Cheikh Sabaly win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Alonso Martínez win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Anders Dreyer win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Philip Zinckernagel win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Idan Toklomati win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Djordje Mihailovic win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Diego Rossi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Player L win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player B win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Z win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Y win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player D win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player A win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AB win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player O win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player G win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AC win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player P win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player F win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player H win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player N win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player R win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AA win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player T win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another player win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player I win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player K win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Q win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player W win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AD win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player M win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player J win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player X win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player S win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player U win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player E win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player V win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player C win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 89.3% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 27.5% to 43.3% — a 15.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 27.7% to 45.1% — a 17.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 42.1% to 53.5% — a 11.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 54.9% to 41.3% — a 13.7-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 63.5% to 42.8% — a 20.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 63.5% to 55.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 59.8% to 62.1% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 52.3% to 61.7% — a 9.4-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 49.5% to 59.7% — a 10.1-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 59 tracked outcomes and $902.4K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot, is priced at 59.2%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice