Oct 11, 2026
Probability rose from 80.8% to 93.9% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
MLS 2026 Golden Boot Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot at 95.0%.
95.0%-0.0 pts 24h
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?
Updated · Volume $977.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 95.0% | -0.0 |
| Will Petar Musa win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 2.8% | +0.1 |
| Will Milan Iloski win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 1.8% | -0.2 |
| Will Hugo Cuypers win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.9% | +0.1 |
| Will Kévin Denkey win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Sam Surridge win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.5% | -0.0 |
| Will Denis Bouanga win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.4% | +0.2 |
| Will Dejan Joveljić win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Prince-Osei Owusu win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | +0.1 |
| Will Martín Ojeda win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | +0.1 |
| Will Alonso Martínez win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Anders Dreyer win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Idan Toklomati win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Evander win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tadeo Allende win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Cheikh Sabaly win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Marco Pašalić win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tai Baribo win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Brian White win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | -0.8 |
| Will Philip Zinckernagel win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Danny Musovski win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Germán Berterame win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Djordje Mihailovic win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Albert Rusnák win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Diego Rossi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Hany Mukhtar win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Louis Munteanu win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Player H win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player I win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player K win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player F win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player T win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player B win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player A win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Y win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player C win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player X win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player P win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another player win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player R win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player E win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AD win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Q win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player V win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player M win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player U win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AC win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player J win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player N win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player L win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AB win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player G win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Z win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player W win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player AA win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player O win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player S win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player D win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 97.7% of the total probability.
Context
Oct 11, 2026
Probability rose from 80.8% to 94.7% — a 13.8-point move over the past day.
Sep 28, 2026
Probability rose from 79.1% to 82.0% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
Sep 28, 2026
Probability rose from 67.5% to 79.1% — a 11.6-point move over the past day.
Sep 27, 2026
Probability rose from 62.8% to 77.2% — a 14.4-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 67.3% — a 7.8-point move over the past day.
Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 54.9% to 63.3% — a 8.4-point move over the past day.
Sep 13, 2026
Probability rose from 52.2% to 63.2% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 51.8% — a 8.7-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 60.1% to 58.4% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 59 tracked outcomes and $977.6K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot, is priced at 95.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice