Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 92.9% to 98.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Left-wing political outsider wins Democratic Senate primary in Michigan — BBC News
MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $38.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Latonya Reeves be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 97.3% to 92.9% — a 4.3-point move over the past day.
Around this time: El-Sayed, Stevens face off in Michigan Democratic Senate primary — Al Jazeera
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice