MN-05 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability

The headline figure has stayed near its current level for much of the period,. Traded volume sits around $49.9K. No sharp swings are evident in the chart, suggesting a market that has largely settled on its view. This market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives election on [[Nov 4, 2026]]. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation. If that is absent or ambiguous, the party with which they have most recently expressed an intent to caucus is used. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting; if ambiguity persists, it falls back to official results published by the Federal Election Commission. What would move the number? A formal shift would require new information that alters the market’s view of the election outcome well before the resolution date of [[Nov 4, 2026]]. The primary drivers specified by the rules are the ballot-listed party of any winning candidate or their stated caucus intention, and the eventual certification by official sources. In practice, that means any development that materially changes the race’s competitiveness could be reflected in the price.