Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 65.5% to 76.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $634.6K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | 0.1% | — |
| Will another candidate be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 65.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 63.5% to 56.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 48.5% to 61.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 41.0% to 51.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 57.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Troy Jackson secures Democratic nomination for Maine Senate seat after chaotic primary race — The Guardian
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 61.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice