Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 96.2% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
MO-01 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the Democratic Party's odds at 98.0% to win Missouri's 1st congressional district. The market will resolve based on the party of the certified winner after the 2026 midterm elections.
98.0%-0.1 pts 24h
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-01 House seat?
Updated · Volume $36.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the MO-01 House seat? | 98.0% | -0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MO-01 House seat? | 1.4% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MO-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MO-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MO-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MO-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MO-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MO-01 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Democratic Party is near-certain to retain the seat; the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Day-on-day, it moved -0.1 pts. Total trading volume stands at $36.8K. The market is set to resolve after the 2026 midterm election, which takes place on Nov 4, 2026. Party affiliation is drawn from the ballot; if a candidate lists no party, it defaults to the most recently declared caucus intent. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission’s official tally used as a backup when the picture is cloudy. The formal resolution date of Nov 4, 2026 anchors the market’s timeline. Any fresh polling, candidate announcements, or national political swings ahead of the election can shift the contract. The final settlement hinges on the official results as reported by the FEC and reputable media consensus.
FAQ
How does this market determine the winner?
It resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional seat, based on consensus reporting and, if needed, the FEC's official results.
What counts as a candidate’s party affiliation?
The party listed on the ballot, or if unlisted, the party with which they most recently expressed an intention to caucus.
When will the market settle?
After the election results are conclusively called. The election is scheduled for Nov 4, 2026. Resolution typically follows within days, though disputes can stretch the timeline.
What if the election result is contested?
The market looks to a consensus of credible reporting. If that remains ambiguous, it falls back on the official tally from the Federal Election Commission.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice