MO-04 House Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Markets price the Republican Party at 92.5% to hold Missouri’s 4th congressional district in the 2026 midterms, making them strongly favored.
Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat?
Updated · Volume $50.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat? | 92.5% | +1.0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MO-04 House seat? | 8.0% | 0.0 |
| Will B win the MO-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will C win the MO-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will E win the MO-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will D win the MO-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will A win the MO-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the MO-04 House seat? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Republican Party is the clear favorite to win the seat, while the Democratic Party is an outside chance and all other outcomes are long shots.
Context
Markets have priced the Republican Party’s chances. The market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins Missouri’s 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives at the 2026 midterm elections. A candidate’s party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if ambiguous, by their most recently expressed caucus intent. The outcome is based on a consensus of credible reporting, or failing that, on the official results from the Federal Election Commission. The only formal resolution trigger is the election, scheduled for Nov 3, 2026. The market will settle once the winner’s party is conclusively determined, either by a consensus of credible reporting or by the Federal Election Commission’s official results. No other scheduled milestones or announcements are written into the contract’s resolution criteria.
FAQ
How does the market determine a candidate's party?
The candidate's party is identified by their ballot-listed affiliation. If no party is listed, the market looks to the party with which the candidate most recently expressed an intent to caucus.
What if the election result is disputed?
The market relies first on a consensus of credible reporting. If that remains ambiguous, it falls back to the official results from the Federal Election Commission.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after the 2026 midterm elections, once the winner of Missouri’s 4th congressional district is conclusively called.
Does the market cover the general election or primaries?
It resolves based on the general election winner; primary results do not directly settle the market, though they may influence the probability.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice